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Home Prices Continue To Correct, Rate Pause May Provide Floor

NEW ZEALAND

CoreLogic house prices fell 0.7% m/m to be down 10.2% y/y in May after -0.5% and -10.3% in April. They now stand 11.6% below the March 2022 peak. The correction has only unwound around a quarter of the pandemic rally of 46%. After 525bp of cumulative monetary tightening, the housing market continues to ease. However, the indication at May’s RBNZ meeting that hiking is done may put a floor in the market, helped by the increase in migration.

  • CoreLogic head of research Gooddall said “Mortgage holders and aspiring home owners should now be able to quantify the worst-case scenario for their mortgage repayments which will give both them and their bank confidence in assessing serviceability test rates.”
  • According to Centrix, the NZ credit bureau, mortgage arrears were only 1.3% in March and mortgage advisors have said that many home owners kept repayments at the same level when they remortgaged to lower rates. Higher wages and reduced discretionary spending are also helping households to meet payments.
  • See CoreLogic press release here.
NZ home prices y/y%

Source: MNI - Market News/Refinitiv/Bloomberg

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