MNI NBP Preview - July 2024: Status Quo
The widely expected on-hold rate decision will be accompanied by updated macroeconomic forecasts, which may shed some light on Polish monetary policy outlook.
Executive Summary:
- The NBP is expected to stand pat on rates again.
- The new inflation projection will steal the limelight.
- Governor Glapiński may reaffirm the NBP's hawkish stance.
Full preview including a summary of sell-side views here:
MNI NBP Preview - July 2024.pdf
The details of the updated macroeconomic projection will be the highlight of this week’s monetary policy meeting, which is otherwise widely expected to result in another on-hold decision. The National Bank of Poland (NBP) keeps signalling its intention to freeze rates at their current levels through the remainder of this year. Core inflation remains elevated amid robust wage growth, while the partial withdrawal of energy price caps is expected to boost headline in 2H2024. Against this backdrop, Governor Adam Glapiński may use Thursday’s press conference to reaffirm the NBP’s hawkish monetary policy stance.