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MNI NBP Preview - November 2023: Post-Election Fog

Executive Summary:

  • Both a 25bp rate cut and a hold are on the table this week.
  • Headline inflation registered another sizeable drop but the outlook raises questions.
  • There is much uncertainty around the post-election shape of the NBP's reaction function.


Full preview including a summary of sell-side views here:

MNI NBP Preview - November 2023.pdf

Following the delivery of relatively forceful monetary easing at the past two meetings (100bp in total), the NBP finds itself at a crossroads, having to decide whether to press ahead with further gradual cuts or pause and wait for a clearer picture of the economy and the post-election outlook. We believe that it would make sense for the Monetary Policy Council to adopt a wait-and-see stance at this junction, even as the latest CPI report revealed another sizeable decline in headline inflation rate. However, one must consider the policymaker’s perspective – which in this case is clouded by fresh uncertainties. We think that ultimately another 25bp rate cut is marginally more likely than an alternative scenario involving an on-hold decision.

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