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The SARB remains in "wait and see mode" with a number of hawkish and dovish factors filtering through from this meeting.
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The SARB kept rates on hold at 3.5%, making a few forecast revisions but delivered mixed dovish/hawkish signals. The overall result is still "wait and see", however, despite phrasing shifting from "balanced" inflation risks to "are to the upside."
Muted demand pressures should keep the SARB in holding pattern until 4Q21-1Q22, but with inflation contained around/below midpoint of the range and Kganyago acknowledging the need to keep policy as loose as possible to support the recovery, the bar seems relatively high for premature hikes in the absence of unforeseen changes to the outlook.
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