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MNI US Employment Insight, Oct'22: Fourth 75bp Hike Almost A Done Deal

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

  • Payrolls growth was about as close to expected as can be in September with signs of cooling but a surprise dip in the u/e rate back to joint fifty-year lows of 3.5% continues to show just how tight the labour market is.
  • There is no sign of the upward drift in the u/e rate that the median FOMC member expects to see this year to 3.9% as part of their projection for 4.4% Fed Funds come end’22, whilst also bucking signs of relatively softer job demand from August JOLTS data.
  • The tightness helps nudge markets to almost fully pricing a fourth 75bp hike at the Nov 2 FOMC but with focus firmly on September CPI on Thursday (Oct 13).

PLEASE FIND THE FULL NOTE HERE:

USEmploymentReportOct2022.pdf

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