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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
Executive Summary
- Bloomberg consensus looks for further moderation in payrolls growth in May with 195k after 253k, but once again watch two-month revisions to see if they continue to unwind prior sizeable “beats”.
- Already at fresh multi-decade lows, the u/e rate could again be set up for a hawkish surprise judging by the primary dealer survey skew, something that doesn’t show in the broader Bloomberg survey.
- AHE seen moderating after April’s surprise strength, with any weakness watched after today’s surprise downward revisions for ULCs in Q422 and Q123.
- The market no longer fully prices a final 25bp hike in July and only sees circa ¼ odds of such a move in June after skipping rhetoric from two FOMC voters yesterday, but data dependence at this stage of the cycle sees risk of large two-sided market reactions.
- There is a short window for FOMC members to have their last formal say before the media blackout, but the market could be left waiting until CPI on day one of the Jun 13-14 FOMC to have more confidence.
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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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