Hot Weather and Low Supply Drive TTF Higher

European gas rallies higher again this morning as hot weather has driven up cooling demand and increased pressure for gas for power generation. Low water levels are making transportation of diesel and coal difficult and are impacting nuclear and hydro power output at a time when the continent is attempting to conserve gas ahead of the winter.

• TTF SEP 22 up 4.5% at 229.99€/MWh
• TTF WIN 22 up 4.2% at 233.5€/MWh
• Despite the ongoing restricted supply from Russia and concerns for demand, injections to storage have been maintained at or slightly above seasonal normal levels. Germany have reached a refill target of 75% two weeks ahead of schedule with their next target of 85% by Oct 1. European storage as of Aug 14 was 74.73% full with Germany at 76.79%, Italy at 77.05%, France at 86.24 and Netherlands at 70.53%.
• Lower supply from Norway due to planned capacity restrictions for Troll and Kollsnes until the end of the month are adding to the upside pressure. Norwegian flows are today nominated at 313.9mcm/d compared to over 330mcm at the start of the month.
• Russian supply is stable with Nord Stream at 32.15mcm/d and transit through Ukraine at 42.2mcm/d