August 12, 2022 13:20 GMT
USHomepagePolitical Market NewsPolitical RiskPolitical Risk BulletBulletMarketsFixed IncomeForeign Exchange
The US House of Representatives has come out of recess to vote on the Schumer-Manchin Inflation Reduction Act - the ~USD$700 billion climate, Medicare, and deficit reduction bill.
- Debate in the House is now underway and can be watched here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=juj9l9ukw0E
- The bill is expected to pass the lower chamber in a vote likely to take place at around 15:00 ET 20:00 BST. As this is a vote on Senate amended House bill, there will be no additional amendments.
- House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy (R-CA) has vowed to whip against the bill but some analysts have questioned the wisdom of a uniform Republican "no" vote on a broadly popular bill. For that reason there may be a number of dissenting GOP votes from Republican reps with an eye on midterm campaigns.
- Josh Siegel writes in Politico: “Former GOP lawmakers and Republican allied groups warn the party risks overreaching and alienating key voting groups such as young people and suburban voters who want climate action in the face of worsening wildfires, droughts and flooding. Such alienation could complicate Republican efforts to retake one or both houses of Congress, they say.”
- House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-CA) has a four-vote margin to pass the bill. If she can manage to corral a unanimous vote today it will cap a highly productive period in Congress for Democrats.
- A unanimous vote would be of particular note considering the fractious nature of the Democratic caucus earlier this year. The Hill wrote in February on the midterm outlook: “The number of House Democrats not seeking re-election this year has hit a 30-year high — a bleak benchmark reflecting frustrations with the gridlock on Capitol Hill, the toxicity of relations between the parties and the challenges facing Democrats as they fight to keep their slim majority in the lower chamber.”