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Household Inflation Expectations Concerning

NEW ZEALAND

Q1 RBNZ household survey expectations were mixed and are likely to worry the RBNZ, but at least business ones moderated. In recent research, the central bank found that mean 1-year household expectations had the closest fit with underlying inflation. This was one of the measures in the report that eased, falling to 5.1% from 5.5%. The median was steady at 5% though. Median current inflation perceptions rose 0.1pp to 7.1%, 2-years ahead by 0.2pp to 3.2% and 5-years by 1pp to 3%. The RBNZ meets on February 28 and while we expect them to leave rates unchanged, they are likely to sound cautious and increase expectations of a prolonged hold.

NZ Inflation y/y%

Source: MNI - Market News/Refinitiv

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