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Household Savings Ratio Pauses Recent Climb In April

US DATA
  • Strong nominal personal spending growth of 0.8% M/M and softer disposable income growth of 0.4% M/M saw the savings ratio fall 0.4pps to 4.1% from a downward revised 4.5% in March (initial 5.1%) and 4.3% in Q1 (initial 4.8%), pausing a climb off lows of 3% seen late 2022.
  • The level revisions aren’t unusually large for the series, and leave a saving ratio that continues to trim previously accumulated excess savings at the pandemic.
  • Q1 saw ~$240B trimmed after $275B through Q2-Q4, leaving the stock of estimated excess savings a little under a still hefty $1T or 3.5% GDP. These latest savings data suggest a continuation of that ~$250B/quarter trend ahead.

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