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Housing Agency 'Scenario' Sees Mild Recession With Rate Surge

CANADA
  • CMHC chief economist blog post Monday: "The high interest rate scenario results in lower growth. Here, GDP is predicted to grow by 3.4% in 2022 and 0.7% in 2023. Economic growth hits a bottom between Q4 2022 and Q1 2023. These two quarters register marginal negative growth, signifying a mild recession in the high interest rate scenario."
  • The high rate scenario: "increases its policy interest rate to 3.5% in early 2023 before gradually converging back to the neutral rate of 2.5%"
  • Last week Royal Bank was first of Canada's "Big Five" to predict recession, around the middle of next year
MNI Ottawa Bureau | +1 613-314-9647 | greg.quinn@marketnews.com
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MNI Ottawa Bureau | +1 613-314-9647 | greg.quinn@marketnews.com
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