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US DATA: Housing Construction Point To Positive Resi Invt Contribution In Q4

US DATA
USEM BulletFixed Income BulletsData BulletBulletMarketsEmerging Market NewsForeign Exchange BulletsNorth America
  • Building permits were a little higher than expected in December at 1483k (cons 1460k) for little change from 1493k in Nov.
  • The modest -0.7% M/M decline came as single family units (+1.6% M/M after 0.5%) helped partly offset multi-units pulling back after a sharp increase (-5% M/M after +15.4%).
  • Housing starts meanwhile, which are more prone to weather disruption, surprisingly jumped to 1499k (cons 1327k) after 1294k in Nov.
  • The 16% increase came as single family units increased 3% M/M after 8% whilst the volatile multi-unit component jumped 62% after -31%, highlighting just how noisy the data can be.
  • Looking through some of the noise, the quarterly trend of some stabilization after recent declines should continue to see residential investment set to contribute positively to GDP growth in Q4 after an average -0.15pp annualized through Q2-Q3. Yesterday’s Atlanta Fed GDPNow put this contribution at 0.13pp, due an update later today when also taking IP data into account.  
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  • Building permits were a little higher than expected in December at 1483k (cons 1460k) for little change from 1493k in Nov.
  • The modest -0.7% M/M decline came as single family units (+1.6% M/M after 0.5%) helped partly offset multi-units pulling back after a sharp increase (-5% M/M after +15.4%).
  • Housing starts meanwhile, which are more prone to weather disruption, surprisingly jumped to 1499k (cons 1327k) after 1294k in Nov.
  • The 16% increase came as single family units increased 3% M/M after 8% whilst the volatile multi-unit component jumped 62% after -31%, highlighting just how noisy the data can be.
  • Looking through some of the noise, the quarterly trend of some stabilization after recent declines should continue to see residential investment set to contribute positively to GDP growth in Q4 after an average -0.15pp annualized through Q2-Q3. Yesterday’s Atlanta Fed GDPNow put this contribution at 0.13pp, due an update later today when also taking IP data into account.  
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