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Housing Wrap: More Cuts Needed To Spark Housing Resurgence

CANADA
  • Market activity remained muted in June after first Bank of Canada rate cut. July's rate decision could start to bring borrowing costs down low enough to incite a stronger reaction.
  • "Canada’s housing numbers did perk up a bit on a month-over-month basis in June following the first Bank of Canada rate cut,” said Shaun Cathcart, CREA’s Senior Economist
  • June home sales +3.7% MOM, the first increase in 5M; -9.4% YOY. Average resale prices -1.6% YOY; the house price index -3.4% YOY but +0.1% MOM, the first increase in 11M.
  • Teranet Housing Index prices +3.6 YOY from +5.7% in May.
  • Housing inventory fell for the first time in 2024, and is below the long term average.
  • Starts -9% in June to 242K, the 6M moving average -0.4%. CMHC's chief economist expects downward pressure on starts through rest of 2024.
  • Toronto’s real estate board economist on CREA webcast casts doubt that BOC cut will spur major rebound: “We probably need to see 100 basis points, 150 basis points before we start to see a real marked acceleration in sales activity. We'll see stronger activity in the second half of 2024, but even more so as we move into 2025.”
  • Focus remains on half of mortgage borrowers facing a major upward reset of rates over next two years.
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