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Hovering With A 3.5% Peak Fed Funds Rate

STIR FUTURES
  • FOMC-dated Fed Funds implied hikes have shifted higher early in the European morning to 71bps for July back towards the higher end of last week’s range of 67-73bps.
  • Subsequent meetings have also increased but are near the mid to lower end of the recent range, with a cumulative 129bps to Sep (two meetings, 125bp on Fri) and 185bps to Dec (four meetings, 181bp), on the way to peaking in the Mar’23 meeting at an implied rate of 3.56%.
  • No Fedspeak scheduled for today with SF Fed’s Daly (’24 voter) next up tomorrow. She was the last FOMC member to speak late on Fri, seeing a 75bp hike in July as looking likely but still data dependent.

Cumulative hikes in FOMC-dated Fed Funds futures Source: Bloomberg

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