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How Fast Will the Czech Economy Decelerate?

CZECHIA
  • The Finance Ministry is scheduled to offer for sale as much as CZK7b ($314m) of local-currency bonds maturing in 2025, 3031 and 2035 (BBG).
  • This morning, economic data showed that the industrial output fell by 0.3%% in February (vs. 2.5% exp.), down from revised 4% the previous month.
  • We have previously seen that the sharp tightening in financial conditions has been pricing in a significant slowdown in the economic activity.
  • The chart shows that the 2Y change in Czech 2Y yield has historically strongly led the industrial production by 6 months in the past cycle.

Source: Blomberg/MNI

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