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How significant is "finely balanced" and is there now less data dependency? (1/2)

BOE
  • The use of the phrase "finely balanced" was used by Mann and Haskel in official appearances (but not the Minutes) following the February MPC meeting when they described their reasoning to vote for another hike. Note that both at the following meeting in March changed their vote to rates on hold.- In the official MPC Minutes "finely balanced was last used in the September, November and December Minutes to describe the decision to keep rates on hold.
  • It does certainly suggest that today's MPC decision was probably closer than markets had been expecting. As noted earlier, the BBC is reporting there are three MPC members in this group.
  • Those members views were also summarised as "the upside news in services price inflation relative to the May Report did not alter significantly the disinflationary trajectory that the economy was on. This view was supported by evidence that the recent strength in services inflation included regulated and indexed components of the basket, and volatile components. The impact of the increase in the NLW this April on aggregate pay growth was unlikely to be as large in future. Such factors would not push up medium-term inflation."
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