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HSBC Expect Further Pressure On Currency Following Election

ARGENTINA
  • Argentina goes to the polls next Sunday, with a highly uncertain election outcome and HSBC believe there will be likely further downward pressure on the ARS thereafter. Argentines will elect the President, half of the seats of the Lower Chamber, and a third of the seats in the Senate. Five provinces will vote for local governors and legislatures, including Buenos Aires, home to 40% of the population.
  • Polls suggest Javier Milei, a right-wing libertarian, could win the most votes but is unlikely to win in the first round. There is significant uncertainty regarding who he might face in the run-off, either the current economy minister, Sergio Massa, or the center-right candidate Patricia Bullrich.
  • HSBC expect additional pressures on the currency following the election. If the incumbent economy minister, Sergio Massa, remains in the race, he will likely seek to delay a devaluation of the official FX rate for as long as possible due to the perceived economic and political costs it would entail. But macro imbalances keep widening, pointing to an even worse macro environment in the coming months.
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