MNI: PBOC Net Drains CNY236.6 Bln via OMO Tuesday

MNI BRIEF: Market Cash Rate Pricing Off - RBA Minutes

MNI: PBOC Sets Yuan Parity Lower At 7.1325 Tues; +2.12% Y/Y

China Repo Rates Rise On Tuesday

CHINA PBOC CONDUCTS CNY149.1 BILLION VIA 7-DAY REVERSE REPOS TUES

CHINA SETS YUAN CENTRAL PARITY AT 7.1325 TUES VS 7.1415

MNI: GERMANY JUL PRODUCER PRICES -0.8% Y/Y

Headline Consumer Sentiment Softens, House Price Expectations Rise Further

EZ/UK Bond Supply Calendar: Finland Syndi; Green Bunds Due Tues

RPT-MNI: Canada Sticks To Fiscal Anchors, Spends Chunk Of Windfall

© 1982-2024 MNI. All rights reserved.
Terms | Privacy
Log Out
Free Trial

HSBC Expect SARB to Start Cutting Rates in Q3 2024

SOUTH AFRICA
  • HSBC say a sharp moderation in fuel price growth underpinned the decline in inflation in November and outweighed an uptick in both food inflation and core price pressures. The rise in core inflation, meanwhile, was broad-based.
  • A further 5% m/m drop in local fuel prices suggests headline price growth will ease further in December, they say. Beyond this temporary reprieve, however, HSBC think the inflation profile will be sticky, and average 5.4% over the next 12-18 months with material upside risks from El Niño, a weaker ZAR, electricity tariffs and other administered prices.
  • They keep their headline CPI forecast unchanged over the forecast horizon, averaging 5.9% this year, 5.4% in 2024 and 5.1% in 2025, some way above the SARB's current estimates. They also nudge their near-term core CPI forecast up by 10bp for 2023 to 4.9% but keep it unchanged for 2024 and 2025. Nonetheless, HSBC think policy rates have peaked but expect the SARB to only start cutting rates in Q3 2024.
BulletEM BulletEmerging Market NewsHomepage
BulletEM BulletEmerging Market NewsHomepage

To read the full story

Close

Why MNI

MNI is the leading provider

of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.

Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.