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HSBC Expecting Imminent Start To Easing Cycle, Year-End Forecast of 6.0%

PERU
  • HSBC expect the central bank to start its easing cycle with a 50bp cut to 7.25%. HSBC then see 125bp rate cuts in the remainder of 2023, leading to a 6.0% rate by end-2023.
  • For reference, all analysts surveyed by Bloomberg at this juncture are predicting the BCRP to keep the reference rate unchanged at 7.75% on Thursday.
  • HSBC say there were no hints towards the immediacy of the easing cycle at the July meeting and acknowledge this raises the risk of a delayed start. They highlight the expectation of subdued growth of 1.7% in 2023 with potential for new inflationary (but possibly transitory) pressures arising from El Niño together form an uncertain scenario.
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