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HSBC on April Jobs: Unlike Policy Makers Will Overreact

US OUTLOOK/OPINION
  • HSBC notes that while Friday's April employment data was "below consensus expectations," jobs were "still within the broad range of monthly increases seen over the past year."
  • "Private sector employment rose 167,000 and government employment rose 8,000. The increase in government employment was the smallest since December 2022 and could be a sign that hiring in this sector is beginning to slow from the robust pace seen in recent years."
  • "After mostly upside surprises to employment growth over the past two years, we don't expect FOMC policymakers overreact to the lower-than-expected result in April, unless subsequent data also point to the possibility that economic momentum is softening. The private sector payroll diffusion index - a measure of the share of industries that are adding jobs - rose to 60.4 in April, a healthy reading that is consistent with broad-based job creation."
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