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of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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Free AccessHSBC See Rates On Hold This Week, But 75bp Of Rate Cuts In H2
- HSBC expect Banxico to keep the benchmark rate on hold at 11.00% this week, in line with what the market is pricing. The already blurry monetary policy outlook turned more complex after the sharp MXN depreciation that followed the election result as it poses upside risks for tradable goods prices, which combined with stronger volatility could be a gamechanger for monetary policy in the short term.
- Against this backdrop, while HSBC think there are solid arguments to cut rates, such as the real ex-ante rate above 7% and better-than-expected core inflation, the post-election market dynamics could demand increased caution for now.
- Assuming a pause in June, they see a resumption of rate cuts from Q3 2024, as long as the disinflation process prevails. They forecast the policy rate at 10.25% by end-2024, with one 25bp cut in Q3 and two in Q4, and 8.25% by end-2025.
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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.