-
Policy
Policy
Exclusive interviews with leading policymakers that convey the true policy message that impacts markets.
LATEST FROM POLICY: -
EM Policy
EM Policy
Exclusive interviews with leading policymakers that convey the true policy message that impacts markets.
LATEST FROM EM POLICY: -
G10 Markets
G10 Markets
Real-time insight on key fixed income and fx markets.
Launch MNI PodcastsFixed IncomeFI Markets AnalysisCentral Bank PreviewsFI PiFixed Income Technical AnalysisUS$ Credit Supply PipelineGilt Week AheadGlobal IssuanceEurozoneUKUSDeep DiveGlobal Issuance CalendarsEZ/UK Bond Auction CalendarEZ/UK T-bill Auction CalendarUS Treasury Auction CalendarPolitical RiskMNI Political Risk AnalysisMNI Political Risk - US Daily BriefMNI Political Risk - The week AheadElection Previews -
Emerging Markets
Emerging Markets
Real-time insight of emerging markets in CEMEA, Asia and LatAm region
-
Commodities
Commodities
Real-time insight of oil & gas markets
-
Credit
Credit
Real time insight of credit markets
-
Data
-
Global Macro
Global Macro
Actionable insight on monetary policy, balance sheet and inflation with focus on global issuance. Analysis on key political risk impacting the global markets.
Global MacroDM Central Bank PreviewsDM Central Bank ReviewsEM Central Bank PreviewsEM Central Bank ReviewsBalance Sheet AnalysisData AnalysisEurozone DataUK DataUS DataAPAC DataInflation InsightEmployment InsightGlobal IssuanceEurozoneUKUSDeep DiveGlobal Issuance Calendars EZ/UK Bond Auction Calendar EZ/UK T-bill Auction Calendar US Treasury Auction Calendar Chart Packs -
About Us
To read the full story
Sign up now for free trial access to this content.
Please enter your details below.
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
Real-time Actionable Insight
Get the latest on Central Bank Policy and FX & FI Markets to help inform both your strategic and tactical decision-making.
Free AccessHSBC Sees BoK Rate Cuts In Q3 2024
The bank updates its thinking post yesterday's modest upside CPI surprise. It reiterates that is too soon for the BoK to be comfortably with the inflation backdrop and it maintains its view that the first cut will be in Q4 2024.
- HSBC: "Despite the broad picture of continued disinflation, however, today's data likely also suggested the continued need for caution to the Bank of Korea (BoK). ...The sequential momentum for the core inflation was somewhat higher for the first two months of 2024 (note we averaged Jan-Feb and Sep-Oct data, as our seasonal adjustment of Korea's inflation does not properly take into account the changing timings of the LNY and Chuseok holidays) - extending the gradual rise since the low seen from November 2023. While the overall pace of sequential inflation (averaging 0.17% m-o-m sa over Jan-Feb 2024 vs. 0.13% in December 2023) is still largely favourable, we think the gradual rise in momentum of late likely signals to the BoK that it is too early to lower its guards on inflation.
Indeed, we have been arguing that going the "last mile" of disinflation will likely take time, while upside risks from accumulated cost pressures especially from labour and energy costs linger in the economy (see Bank of Korea Watch: A slow-moving pendulum, 5 January). While the subdued momentum in private consumption over the past few quarters likely helped contain such pressures so far, we are also noting the momentum could be slowly recovering as well. Furthermore, while the fuel tax cut was recently extended for another two months up to end-April, there is also uncertainty around public service prices (including electricity fees) especially for the latter half of this year.
All in all, the not-so-favourable inflation momentum of late, along with lingering upside risks, continue to signal the likely need for actual inflation data to come down more meaningfully before the BoK starts easing. In this regard, we maintain our view that the BoK will likely bring its first 25bp policy rate cut in 3Q24. More specifically, we expect to see Korea's headline/core inflation ease to 2.5%/2.0% over the next four to five months - which will likely give the necessary confidence to the BoK that headline inflation will indeed converge on 2% target."
To read the full story
Sign up now for free trial access to this content.
Please enter your details below.
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.