HUF: EUR/HUF Unfazed by Familiar NBH Guidance

EURHUF has displayed limited reaction to both the policy statement and Virag’s comments. The cross last trades near the post-NBH session lows, unfazed by the central bank’s familiar guidance.

• The policy statement acknowledged that 'cautious' rate cuts will be possible in the coming period, while the Deputy Governor was more specific, saying he still sees scope for 1 or 2 rate cuts before year-end. This is consistent with pre-decision speculation that today’s hold would be a pause, with easing likely to resume next month followed by one more rate cut, potentially in December, when updated inflation forecasts will be provided.
• For EURHUF, the cross remains above its Aug 21 low and attention is therefore on initial resistance at 396.06, the Aug 16 high. Clearance of this level would signal a bullish reversal and expose the more important resistance at 399.21, the Aug 5 high. For bears, a break of 391.93, the Aug 21 low, is required to reinstate a bearish threat.