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HUF: EURHUF Briefly Spikes Above 402, PLN Leads CEE Losses

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Weakness in the Polish zloty is filtering through to the forint, prompting EURHUF to briefly spike above 402 and near resistance at 402.45, the March 2023 high. There is no obvious local driver behind today’s move, but it is worth noting that CEE currencies have been unable to benefit from the recovery in global risk sentiment – primarily evidenced by firmer US equity futures. For EURHUF, topside momentum looks to have accelerated through the cluster of highs around 401.80.

  • Focus today will turn to the ECB rate decision and press conference this afternoon, albeit few surprises are expected here. Deputy Governor Virag is scheduled to give remarks at a conference at 12:20BST/13:20CET. Following the rally in EURHUF above 400, Virag sought to cool volatility by signaling that rate cuts will be paused in October, and similar communication today would therefore not be too surprising.
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Weakness in the Polish zloty is filtering through to the forint, prompting EURHUF to briefly spike above 402 and near resistance at 402.45, the March 2023 high. There is no obvious local driver behind today’s move, but it is worth noting that CEE currencies have been unable to benefit from the recovery in global risk sentiment – primarily evidenced by firmer US equity futures. For EURHUF, topside momentum looks to have accelerated through the cluster of highs around 401.80.

  • Focus today will turn to the ECB rate decision and press conference this afternoon, albeit few surprises are expected here. Deputy Governor Virag is scheduled to give remarks at a conference at 12:20BST/13:20CET. Following the rally in EURHUF above 400, Virag sought to cool volatility by signaling that rate cuts will be paused in October, and similar communication today would therefore not be too surprising.