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HUF: Forint Underperforms Following CPI Data, CZKHUF Trading at 8-Month High

HUF
  • EURHUF has started the session on the front foot, supported by the weaker-than-expected CPI data this morning. Central bank policy makers have previously argued that a temporary rise in inflation in the middle of 2024 can be expected because of retrospective pricing of market services and base effects.
  • The cross traded to a high of 393.09, not far off key resistance and the bull trigger at 393.35, last week’s high. A break here could signal scope for an extension towards 395.73, 76.4% of the Mar 12 - May 28 bear leg.
  • This morning’s data has resulted in HUF underperformance compared to its regional peers. PLNHUF and CZKHUF are both trading around 0.3% higher on the session, with the former trading near the 91.00 handle. That cross had tested the 100-DMA earlier in the session – an average we have not closed below since November 2023.
  • CZKHUF, meanwhile, is trading at a fresh multi-month high near 15.94. The substantial rally over the past 2 weeks has resulted in the break of a number of moving average levels, with the 16.00 handle the next target for bulls. We have not traded above here since September last year.
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