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HUF/JPY Pierces Above 200-DMA, EUR/HUF Adds to This Week’s Moderate Gains

HUF
Weakness in the Japanese yen following the BoJ rate decision overnight prompted a brief move above the 200-DMA and 50-day EMA for HUFJPY, with the cross 0.5% in the green at typing. While the cross last operates roughly in the middle of 2024’s extremes, an impressive 2.7% bounce has been recorded from last week’s YTD lows. EURHUF, meanwhile, is 0.2% firmer on the day, above both the 395 handle and yesterday’s highs.
  • The NBH are likely to display attentiveness to adverse HUF conditions when they meet next week, given EURHUF is operating relatively close to its recent cycle highs with technical conditions still strongly bullish. Moreover, EURHUF implied vols have continued to rise throughout March, coming off multi-year lows seen around the time of the February MPC meeting.
  • Back in January, the NBH decided to err on the side of caution with a 75bp rate cut (vs consensus of a 100bps move) after EURHUF had rallied ~2.5% in the weeks leading up to the decision. While the scale of rate cuts was accelerated to 100bps last month, the rally in EURHUF since then may lead to a reversion in rate cut pace in the interest of HUF stability.
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