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HUF Keeps Weakening As NBH Disappoints

HUNGARY
  • Yesterday, the NBH decided to increase its benchmark rate by 30bps (as expected) to 2.1%.
  • The 30bps hike was largely priced in by the market; USDHUF surged 2.5 figures to test its 323 resistance before starting to consolidate lower.
  • Even though we saw some HUF strength following NBH statement and Virag's' 'hawkish' tone during the press conference (mentioning that the central bank needs to quickly react to the currency-market), it did not take long for the HUF to start weakening again.
  • The HUF is one of the weakest FX performers this month, down 3.2% against the US Dollar.
  • A weak HUF keeps supporting inflation expectations, putting NBH policymakers in a difficult position.
  • This morning, the NBH reported that the Hungarian government debt level rose to 80.5% of GDP in Q3, up from 77.4% the previous quarter (and up from 73.8% last year).
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