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(Z2) Uptrend Remains Intact


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  • Geopolitical uncertainty combined with the global risk off sentiment has been constantly weighing on the HUF, which has been one of the weakest performing currencies among the EM world this year (down nearly 15% against the USD).
  • This week's aggressive NBH response was not enough to generate a strong momentum on the forint, with EURHUF trading back close to the 400 level on Friday.
  • HUF is now the 'cheapest' currency among the G10/CEE world using either a fundamental approach or historical ranges.
  • For instance, the HUF is currently trading over 31% below its 'fair' value defined by our BEER FX model.
  • The chart below ranks the major G10 and CEE currencies based on their percentage difference between the current spot rate and their 'fair' value, which we define using a Behavioral Equilibrium Exchange Rate (BEER) model (using terms of trade, inflation and 10y interest rate differentials as explanatory variables).

Source: Bloomberg/MNI

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