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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
STIR FUTURES
- Euribor futures the biggest movers of the morning, with the Mar-23 contract already down 13 ticks on the day, following the 21 tick move lower yesterday. Markets now fully price a 10bp hike by June with 50bp priced by the end of 2022 (i.e. the deposit rate back to 0% from -0.50%). This follows on from Lagarde's comments of "unanimous concern" about inflation on the ECB. As yet, no push back on these comments or market moves from other ECB members (other like the previous Lane clarifications).
- SONIA futures are down 7-9 ticks across almost the whole strip this morning following yesterday's BOE meeting, adding to the large moves seen yesterday, particularly at the front-end. The Jun-22 contract is now down 29.5 ticks since Wednesday's close. Markets now price 32.5bp for March (i.e. 25bp fully priced with 30% probability of 50bp), cumulative 66.7bp priced by May, then 100bp fully priced by August and more than five 25bp hikes fully priced by November.
- Eurodollar futures also under pressure, and of course we have the US employment report to look for later; moves limited to 10 ticks lower since Wednesday's close.
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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