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HUNGARY: HUF Weakness Returns, Underperforms Broader CEE

HUNGARY
CEEMEAEM BulletBulletGlobalEmerging Market NewsHungaryRegion

EUR/HUF's early weakness now more than fully reversed, with HUF again offered and pushing the cross to new daily, weekly and YTD highs. 401.54 the new intraday high, again exposing resistance at 402.45, the mid-March highs from 2023.

  • Notably, today's return of EUR/HUF strength puts the price above the 50% retracement for the downleg posted off the '22 high at 400.95, meaning a close at current, or higher, levels would be a bullish signal.
  • HUF has shown the outsized correlation with geopolitical risk relative to its CEE peers this week, while the steady pricing of easier ECB policy may also be filtering into NBH pressure. We also noted building bearish views among the sell-side - BBG highlight that Bank of America, Citi, MS as well as Barclays are taking a downbeat view on the currency.
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EUR/HUF's early weakness now more than fully reversed, with HUF again offered and pushing the cross to new daily, weekly and YTD highs. 401.54 the new intraday high, again exposing resistance at 402.45, the mid-March highs from 2023.

  • Notably, today's return of EUR/HUF strength puts the price above the 50% retracement for the downleg posted off the '22 high at 400.95, meaning a close at current, or higher, levels would be a bullish signal.
  • HUF has shown the outsized correlation with geopolitical risk relative to its CEE peers this week, while the steady pricing of easier ECB policy may also be filtering into NBH pressure. We also noted building bearish views among the sell-side - BBG highlight that Bank of America, Citi, MS as well as Barclays are taking a downbeat view on the currency.