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HUNGARY: ING Expect Rates to Be Held in Aug, See 25bp Cuts in Sep, Dec

HUNGARY
  • ING believe that the upside inflation surprise in July and the slight deterioration in the country’s risk perception may prompt the central bank to err on the side of caution. As a result, they expect the base rate to remain unchanged at 6.75%, while their call for the 2024 terminal rate remains at 6.25%.
  • Nevertheless, they note that the level of EUR/HUF poses a downside risk to their call, as a further strengthening of the forint could eventually tilt the Monetary Council's assessment towards another 25bp rate cut.
  • For the rest of 2024, ING still expect the NBH to deliver two additional 25bp rate cuts. They add that although the timing of the two additional rate cuts remains highly uncertain, they would favour the September and December meetings for further easing.
CEEMEAEM BulletBulletGlobalEmerging Market NewsHungaryRegion
CEEMEAEM BulletBulletGlobalEmerging Market NewsHungaryRegion

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