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HUNGARY: JP Morgan Believe Inflation Data Increases Chances of Hold in July

HUNGARY
  • In JP Morgan’s view, the takeaway from today’s print for monetary policy is that there is evidence of exhaustion in the disinflation process and hence it pays to be cautious. They believe that today’s print, together with relatively a high EUR/HUF, increases the chances of the NBH keeping rates on hold this month. 
  • At the same time, rates in Hungary remain relatively high by regional standards and the NBH targets headline CPI, not core, so it may take comfort in the past six months inside the target band to continue easing, JPM add. 
  • They see still some room for easing this year and expect three rate cuts of 25bps (to 6.25%), the first being this month. Risks are, however, skewed for a pause and much will depend on the EUR/HUF moves between now and the NBH meeting on July 23.
CEEMEAEM BulletBulletGlobalEmerging Market NewsHungaryRegion
CEEMEAEM BulletBulletGlobalEmerging Market NewsHungaryRegion

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