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HUNGARY: JP Morgan Expecting 25bp Rate Cut Next Week

HUNGARY
  • JP Morgan expect the NBH will slow the pace of easing to 25bp adjustments, bringing the base rate down to 7%. The path of inflation suggests caution, and at the same time the EUR/HUF exchange rate has moved higher significantly.
  • After this month, JPM see the central bank easing another 75bps till year-end, in 25bp steps to 6.25% with risks skewed to a shallower cutting cycle if inflation surprises further to the upside, or if any global events put the HUF under weakening pressure.
  • JP Morgan note that headline CPI is likely to run below core inflation for a while due to the effect of subdued food prices on the next months, but more structurally, the highly likelihood of zero inflation in regulated energy prices.
  • They add that the NBH’s main core measure has likely bottomed and will rise in June marginally (to 4.1% from 4%), whereas the measure without processed food can still decline marginally to 5.3% at the end of the year and slightly more in 2025.
CEEMEAEM BulletBulletGlobalEmerging Market NewsHungary
CEEMEAEM BulletBulletGlobalEmerging Market NewsHungary

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