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IAG (IAGLN; Baa3, BBB- Pos) 27s trade away discount to Lufty after S&P outlook change

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  • When S&P moved to pos. outlook early last week we said the IAGLN 27s may be value for those looking for IG airline exposure (at Z+114). It's traded away that discount to peer Lufthansa, now at Z+86 (-28bps).
  • We are still cautious on IG airlines here. For comparison we have cheap views on 2-notch higher rated and double digit growing consumer services co, Pluxee, at Z+80 on 28s...not far from the network carriers.
  • Ryanair trading tight is warranted (net cash goal) and easyJet fine for now though as we have flagged it's BS is suspectable to change over the coming years on heavy Capex plans.
  • IAG and LHA have left fellow AFFP behind in ratings and spreads; the new AFFP29s were around +40bps wide of IAG in the days following pricing but has now moved to +78bps. Unfortunately we still have no interest to fight for AFFP (rough outlook, weakest margins, lacks FCF generation this year and potential supply on refi). AFFP 28s vs. Lufty below.
  • Our only cheap view in the sector remains on Finnair29s (NR/BB+) at Z+210 with an aside to scale risk for single carrier and single country (bordering) Russia exposure. The view is mostly on RV and supported by its Finnish gov. (Aa1/AA+) ownership/financial support/rating uplift.


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  • When S&P moved to pos. outlook early last week we said the IAGLN 27s may be value for those looking for IG airline exposure (at Z+114). It's traded away that discount to peer Lufthansa, now at Z+86 (-28bps).
  • We are still cautious on IG airlines here. For comparison we have cheap views on 2-notch higher rated and double digit growing consumer services co, Pluxee, at Z+80 on 28s...not far from the network carriers.
  • Ryanair trading tight is warranted (net cash goal) and easyJet fine for now though as we have flagged it's BS is suspectable to change over the coming years on heavy Capex plans.
  • IAG and LHA have left fellow AFFP behind in ratings and spreads; the new AFFP29s were around +40bps wide of IAG in the days following pricing but has now moved to +78bps. Unfortunately we still have no interest to fight for AFFP (rough outlook, weakest margins, lacks FCF generation this year and potential supply on refi). AFFP 28s vs. Lufty below.
  • Our only cheap view in the sector remains on Finnair29s (NR/BB+) at Z+210 with an aside to scale risk for single carrier and single country (bordering) Russia exposure. The view is mostly on RV and supported by its Finnish gov. (Aa1/AA+) ownership/financial support/rating uplift.