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IBGE Releases June Retail Sales Due At 1300BST/0800ET

BRAZIL
  • Retail sales volume probably decreased by 1% in June on a monthly basis, according to the median of estimates gathered in a Bloomberg survey, after a 0.1% increase in prior reading.
    • The index is expected to fall 0.1% from a year earlier.
  • Following yesterday’s IPCA inflation data, JPMorgan revised their 2022 IPCA forecast to 6.9%, from 7.4% before.
  • Taking into consideration this expected fall in goods CPI and the continued effect of the tax cuts in August, despite the higher services CPI, JPM are revising down our 2022 inflation forecasts.
  • JPM are also lowering the August CPI forecast from -0.04% to -0.25% by adding the wholesale gasoline price cut of a couple of weeks ago on the top of another 6% cut to be announced soon. In their calculations, the net effect after August of the balance between lower goods and higher services prices is a lower headline CPI at least from September to December.
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  • Retail sales volume probably decreased by 1% in June on a monthly basis, according to the median of estimates gathered in a Bloomberg survey, after a 0.1% increase in prior reading.
    • The index is expected to fall 0.1% from a year earlier.
  • Following yesterday’s IPCA inflation data, JPMorgan revised their 2022 IPCA forecast to 6.9%, from 7.4% before.
  • Taking into consideration this expected fall in goods CPI and the continued effect of the tax cuts in August, despite the higher services CPI, JPM are revising down our 2022 inflation forecasts.
  • JPM are also lowering the August CPI forecast from -0.04% to -0.25% by adding the wholesale gasoline price cut of a couple of weeks ago on the top of another 6% cut to be announced soon. In their calculations, the net effect after August of the balance between lower goods and higher services prices is a lower headline CPI at least from September to December.