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ICIS Points to Bearish Power Market Fundamentals in June

POWER
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ICIS is pointing to a bearish continuation of most power market fundamentals that are likely to further pressure European power prices according to the latest ICIS Power Foresight monthly outlook for June.

  • Warmer than average temperatures at the start of June could have a be slightly bullish for power prices, ICIS said.
  • European power demand in Jan-May was 7.3% below the five-year average. However, demand increased by 1.5% on the year in Jan-Apr, or 1.6% weather adjusted.
  • May power demand declined by 0.5% yar on year.
  • European power demand is forecast to rise this year by 2.6% above 2023 levels.
  • The latest Copernicus forecast as of mid-May suggested the probability of above average temperatures for the summer month is higher than usual, especially in southern Europe.
  • European power prices could rise by €0.7/MWh as a result of warmer weather according ICIS Power Foresight.
  • European power prices are forecast to average €81.2/MWh in Q3, €95.5/MWh in Q4 and €89.5/MWh in 2025.
  • EU residual electricity demand decreased by 2% in Jan-May on the year, driven by increased renewables output. This trend is expected to continue in June.
  • Lower residual demand is expected to result in more negative priced hours which are expected to rise to 8% in 2024 and to 9% in 2025. This compared to 4% of negative priced hours in 2023.
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ICIS is pointing to a bearish continuation of most power market fundamentals that are likely to further pressure European power prices according to the latest ICIS Power Foresight monthly outlook for June.

  • Warmer than average temperatures at the start of June could have a be slightly bullish for power prices, ICIS said.
  • European power demand in Jan-May was 7.3% below the five-year average. However, demand increased by 1.5% on the year in Jan-Apr, or 1.6% weather adjusted.
  • May power demand declined by 0.5% yar on year.
  • European power demand is forecast to rise this year by 2.6% above 2023 levels.
  • The latest Copernicus forecast as of mid-May suggested the probability of above average temperatures for the summer month is higher than usual, especially in southern Europe.
  • European power prices could rise by €0.7/MWh as a result of warmer weather according ICIS Power Foresight.
  • European power prices are forecast to average €81.2/MWh in Q3, €95.5/MWh in Q4 and €89.5/MWh in 2025.
  • EU residual electricity demand decreased by 2% in Jan-May on the year, driven by increased renewables output. This trend is expected to continue in June.
  • Lower residual demand is expected to result in more negative priced hours which are expected to rise to 8% in 2024 and to 9% in 2025. This compared to 4% of negative priced hours in 2023.