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IDR & THB Outperform, KRW Lags

ASIA FX

Asia FX has mostly shown a positive bias against the USD today, albeit with the won remaining an underperformer, while CNH has steadied again. In SEA, PHP has given back some recent gains, but IDR has rallied strongly, while THB and INR maintain positive biases. Tomorrow, South Korean IP prints, Taiwan Q1 GDP, Singapore money supply and unemployment, Thailand IP and BoP/current account data are also due.

  • Once again, USD/CNH's high coincided around the time of the USD/CNY fix, which was close to neutral. We got close to 6.9470, but once onshore spot opened, we moved lower. We currently track around 6.9300, close to session lows. Mar profits data continued to show headwinds, but local equities have stabilized somewhat. The CSI 300 around +0.20% for the session so far.
  • Spot USD/KRW got to fresh highs near 1343 but is now but below 1339, as a firmer equity backdrop helps curb USD gains. They opened weaker following softer Samsung results, but is now back to +0.40%. BoK business sentiment data was better earlier, but the detail was less upbeat in terms of the export outlook.
  • USD/INR posted its lowest level since 13 March yesterday at 81.68 before marginally paring losses as broader USD flows dominated yesterday. We sit a touch below yesterday's closing levels in early dealing, USD/INR is down ~0.1% last printing 81.66/67. Bears now target the 200-Day EMA at 81.12. Bulls look to break the high from April 19 at 82.25. Lower oil prices are likely helping.
  • The rupiah rally is extending. USD/IDR spot got sub 14700, before some dollar support emerged. This brings previous YTD lows from mid-April into focus at 14645. This continues the sharp correction lower in the pair that started not long after yesterday's open. Earlier we had news around palm oil export ratios, which didn't appear bullish for IDR at face value (given reduced quotas relative to domestic sales), although frozen quotas will be released steadily over the next 9 months. Onshore equities have continued to rally, after a quiet start, the JCI is up around 0.80% at this stage. The index is above its 200-day MA (6929.73), last around 6963.65, which is highs back to early Dec last year.
  • The SGD NEER (per Goldman Sachs estimates) printed its lowest level since 16 March yesterday before paring losses through the session. We now sit ~1.1% below the top of the band. USD/SGD was pressured ahead of $1.34 as broader USD trends dominated yesterday's dealing, support was seen ahead of the 20-Day EMA ($1.3333) and loses were marginally pared. We currently sit at $1.3340/50, off the top of the 1.32/34 range observed in April.
  • USD/THB is lower, back close to 34.00 but hasn't been able to breach this level (last near 34.09). Broader USD weakness is evident, while carry over from yesterday's bumper trade surplus print is also evident. USD/PHP is a touch higher, last in the 55.70/75 region, with PHP giving back some recent gains.

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