IDR Worst Performer The Past Week, TWD Outperforms

Asian FX is mostly higher, although gains are fairly limited at this stage. USD/CNH has edged a little higher, to be the exception, but is tracking recent ranges. USD/IDR tried to go higher in earlier trade but there was no follow through. The rupiah is the worst performer week to date in the EM Asia FX space, TWD the best. THB and PHP are higher, aided by better than expected trade balance figures. Tomorrow, China industrial profits data prints. Then on Monday we have the Singapore MAS decision, no change is expected.

• USD/CNH has held above 7.1800 for much of the session, holding close to late NY levels form Thursday trade, although we haven't tested close to the 7.1900 level. Onshore and HK equities are weaker, but still up for the week and are paring losses in the afternoon session. Liquidity is easier in the CNH space, the 1 month implied yield back to +2.7%, versus recent highs around 3.7%. US and China officials (including the China Foreign Minister) will also meet in Thailand.
• 1 month USD/KRW sits a little lower, last near 1333, but hasn't been able to test sub 1330 so far today. Onshore equities are outperforming the weaker led tech trend seen elsewhere in the region. The Kospi was last +0.70%, away from best levels though.
• Spot USD/TWD is trying to test lower, but lows around 31.25 remain intact so far. Local equities are around flat for the session, with weaker Intel results from late in the US session weighing on broader sentiment in the tech space. Still, we have seen nearly $2.9bn in offshore inflows so far this week. TWD has been the best EM Asia FX currency over the past week.
• USD/IDR opened above 15840, but sits back under 15820 in recent dealings. The 1 month NDF is 15830, also off earlier highs. Thursday highs were close to 15900, with the market likely to be mindful of BI intervention and any further domestic news re potential political resignations. Onshore equities are down around 0.90% at this stage.
• Spot USD/PHP is lower, back under 56.35, around 0.35% stronger in PHP terms. Dec trade figures for the Philippines showed a slightly better than expected trade deficit (-$4bn, versus -$4.5bn forecast), largely thanks to slowly import growth. Yesterday's highs in the pair (56.56), were the firmest levels since early Nov last year.
• Spot USD/THB has ticked down from recent highs, last close to 35.65, around 0.20% firmer in baht terms. Dec customs trade showed a surprise trade surplus of nearly $1bn (-$1430mn expected), but this owed to a sharp fall in imports, -3.1%y/y (+7.4% forecast), which indicate softer domestic demand. Comments from late yesterday suggested the BoT bias may be shifting towards a more easier stance.
• USD/SGD has drifted lower, but remains within recent ranges. We were last near 1.3400. While the NEER has also been steady. Monday delivers the MAS policy meeting, with a steady outcome expected.