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OIL: IEA And EIA Align On Market Oversupply This Year

OIL
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IEA and EIA both now projecting similar oil market oversupply in 2025. 

  • As of February, the IEA expects oversupply of 450k b/d this year, while the EIA is projecting 430k b/d oversupply.
  • Just two months ago the IEA and EIA differed vastly; the IEA projected a 950k b/d surplus this year, owing to non-OPEC output growth, while the EIA anticipated a deficit of 80k b/d.
  • “It was always likely that the views would come closer together,” said Giovanni Staunovo, a commodity analyst at UBS Group AG cited by Bloomberg.
  • “We expect the oil market will be almost balanced this year and the surplus that is currently agency forecasted can easily disappear with a supply disruptions or stronger oil demand growth.”
  • The alignment comes as both agencies have revised their demand forecasts, with each now forecasting around 104m b/d of consumption this year. The EIA was forecasting demand this year closer to 105m b/d in September. OPEC is forecasting demand of 105.2m b/d this year.  
IEAEIAForecasts

Image Source: Bloomberg 

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IEA and EIA both now projecting similar oil market oversupply in 2025. 

  • As of February, the IEA expects oversupply of 450k b/d this year, while the EIA is projecting 430k b/d oversupply.
  • Just two months ago the IEA and EIA differed vastly; the IEA projected a 950k b/d surplus this year, owing to non-OPEC output growth, while the EIA anticipated a deficit of 80k b/d.
  • “It was always likely that the views would come closer together,” said Giovanni Staunovo, a commodity analyst at UBS Group AG cited by Bloomberg.
  • “We expect the oil market will be almost balanced this year and the surplus that is currently agency forecasted can easily disappear with a supply disruptions or stronger oil demand growth.”
  • The alignment comes as both agencies have revised their demand forecasts, with each now forecasting around 104m b/d of consumption this year. The EIA was forecasting demand this year closer to 105m b/d in September. OPEC is forecasting demand of 105.2m b/d this year.  
IEAEIAForecasts

Image Source: Bloomberg