IEA Raises 2024 Oil Demand Forecast, Cuts 2023 Outlook

Global oil demand growth forecast for 2024 has been revised up by 130kbpd to 1.1mbpd, while expectations for this year’s demand growth have been lowered as the weakening economic climate is slowing down oil demand growth, according to the IEA Monthly Oil Market Report.

• Global oil demand is seen at 102.8mbpd in 2024. Demand is forecast to rise by 2.3mbpd to 101.7mbpd in 2023, down by 90kbpd from previous estimates.
• The IEA also cut oil demand growth estimates for 4Q 2023 by 390kbpd, as oil demand growth shows signs of sharper slowdown. Demand is expected to grow by 1.9mbpd in Q4Q 2023, down from 2.8mbpd in 3Q23.
• “The increasingly apparent loss of oil demand growth momentum reflects the deterioration in the macroeconomic climate”, the IEA said.
• Chinese demand is forecast to account for 78% of this year’s oil demand growth.
• On the supply side, global oil supply is forecast to grow by 1.8mbpd to 10.9mbpd in 2023, up by 100kbpd from the previous report. Non-OPEC+ drove global supply gains in 2023 and is expected to do so in 2024 with increased output from the US, Brazil, Guyana and Iran.
• Global oil supply is forecast to grow by 1.2mbpd in 2024, including OPEC+ voluntary output cuts.
• Global crude runs are expected to be weaker than previously expected during the fourth quarter amid turnaround. Crude runs fell 3.6mbpd on the month in October and only slowly showed signs of recovering to a seasonal peak of 84.2mbpd by December.
• Refinery margins in Europe and Singapore rebounded slightly last month but USGC margins slipped the third month. Weaker diesel and gasoline cracks drove the decline.
• Russian oil exports fell by 200kbpd in November to 7.2mbpd.