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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
GERMAN DATA
The ifo Business Climate Index for October came in higher than expected at 86.9 versus 86.0 (consensus) and 85.7 (prior). This was the first monthly increase after 5 consecutive declines.
- The upside surprise vs consensus was higher for the expectations index (84.7 vs 83.5 consensus) than for the current assessment (89.2 vs 88.5 consensus) but the bottom line is that each showed improvement - even when taking into account upward revisions to September's readings (for the Business Climate and Expectations indices).
- As with yesterday's release of September PMIs, this is a recessionary set of readings, though in a reverse of the PMIs, IFO shows the services sector improving slightly (-1.5 vs a 10-month low -4.9 in Sept). Manufacturing remains very contractionary in both (-15.9 in IFO, a modest improvement from the pandemic lows below -16.0 in Sept/Aug).
- Manufacturing, Services, and Construction sector expectations all picked up, with Trade sector expectations softening. All remained weak.
- Consensus for Q3 2023 GDP is -0.2% Q/Q, improving to -0.1% in Q4 - combined, the IFO figures suggest that Q3 (which included the Aug / Sep readings) is indeed shaping up as the trough in German economic activity for now, at a very weak level.
Source: IFO, Markit, MNI
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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