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Ifo Survey Flags Weak Start to Q4

GERMAN DATA
MNI (London)

GERMANY OCT IFO BUSINESS CLIMATE 84.3 (FCST 83.5); SEP 84.4r

GERMANY OCT IFO CURRENT ASSESSMENT 94.1 (FCST 92.5); SEP 94.5

GERMANY OCT IFO EXPECTATIONS 75.6 (FCST 75.0); SEP 75.3r

  • The German business climate continued to remain deeply pessimistic in the October data, edging down for the fifth successive month to a fresh 2020 low. Expectations saw a minor 0.3-point improvement, edging up from near initial 2020 pandemic lows. As such, the index is likely to have bottomed out for now.
  • Manufacturing, services, trade and construction continue to see gloomy outlooks as the survey continued to flag recession fears. Manufacturing capacity utilisation in manufacturing dipped from 85.3% to 84.6% as new orders fell.
  • Acute concerns regarding inflation and gas/energy supply shortages persist. Yesterday's PMIs saw German business activity contract again at a concerningly faster rate as new orders dropped. High energy prices are choking both demand and profit margins.
  • The German Q3 GDP flash release is due on Friday and a contraction of around -0.2% q/q is anticipated, kicking off a Winter recession.


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