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Ignores Modest Retail Sales Beat, Eyeing 0.63 Handle

AUD

AUD/USD has seen little positive flow through from the retail sales beat. For AUD/USD, outside influences continue to dominate. The pair is printing fresh lows at the time of writing, with the pair eyeing a test sub 0.6400 (last 0.6405). Higher USD/CNH levels (near 7.2200), coupled with a weaker equity tone is weighing.

  • The retail sales outcome was +0.2ppts better than expected, continuing the run of firmer than expected outcomes. Still, we are down from the average retail sales beat for 2022, which was +0.60ppts prior to today’s outcome.
  • The detail suggests a still resilient spending picture. We are up +19% in y/y terms. The RBA is likely to take comfort from the print, in that its aggressive rate hiking path hasn't derailed household spending.
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AUD/USD has seen little positive flow through from the retail sales beat. For AUD/USD, outside influences continue to dominate. The pair is printing fresh lows at the time of writing, with the pair eyeing a test sub 0.6400 (last 0.6405). Higher USD/CNH levels (near 7.2200), coupled with a weaker equity tone is weighing.

  • The retail sales outcome was +0.2ppts better than expected, continuing the run of firmer than expected outcomes. Still, we are down from the average retail sales beat for 2022, which was +0.60ppts prior to today’s outcome.
  • The detail suggests a still resilient spending picture. We are up +19% in y/y terms. The RBA is likely to take comfort from the print, in that its aggressive rate hiking path hasn't derailed household spending.