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ILS: Shekel Stabilises After Two-Day Sell-Off

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Spot USD/ILS unwinds some of its weekly gain and last trades at 3.7650, 167 pips lower on the day. Concerns about the possible replacement of the Defence Minister have seemingly moderated, while participants assess the implications of the apparent attack on Hezbollah operatives through coordinated pager blasts.

  • From a technical perspective, bears need a sell-off past Sep 16 low of 3.6986 to regain poise before setting their sights on Aug 30 low of 3.6056. On the flip side, bulls look for gains towards Aug 6 high of 3.8533.
  • PM Netanyahu's reported plans to oust Defence Minister Gallant has met with backlash from various quarters, including Israeli business leaders. Israel's Business Forum said that sacking Gallant would be divisive and weaken the country at a time when "Israel is deteriorating into an economic abyss and sinking into a deep recession." There had been speculation that Gallant could be replaced by New Hope party's Gideon Sa’ar, despite both parties denying any such plans.
  • The Bank of Israel will release its 12-months ahead CPI forecast tomorrow. Earlier this week, data showed that headline inflation accelerated to +3.6% Y/Y in August, exceeding the +3.2% consensus forecast by a decent margin.
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Spot USD/ILS unwinds some of its weekly gain and last trades at 3.7650, 167 pips lower on the day. Concerns about the possible replacement of the Defence Minister have seemingly moderated, while participants assess the implications of the apparent attack on Hezbollah operatives through coordinated pager blasts.

  • From a technical perspective, bears need a sell-off past Sep 16 low of 3.6986 to regain poise before setting their sights on Aug 30 low of 3.6056. On the flip side, bulls look for gains towards Aug 6 high of 3.8533.
  • PM Netanyahu's reported plans to oust Defence Minister Gallant has met with backlash from various quarters, including Israeli business leaders. Israel's Business Forum said that sacking Gallant would be divisive and weaken the country at a time when "Israel is deteriorating into an economic abyss and sinking into a deep recession." There had been speculation that Gallant could be replaced by New Hope party's Gideon Sa’ar, despite both parties denying any such plans.
  • The Bank of Israel will release its 12-months ahead CPI forecast tomorrow. Earlier this week, data showed that headline inflation accelerated to +3.6% Y/Y in August, exceeding the +3.2% consensus forecast by a decent margin.