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IMF Says Rate Cuts Should Be Cautious

COLOMBIA
  • The IMF published the conclusions of its Article IV review of Colombia yesterday. The economy is expected to expand by 1.3% this year, similar to last year’s 1.2% pace, supported by a gradual recovery in private investment. Inflation has been more persistent than expected, but is still set to decline to the 3% target by end-2025. However, a stronger-than-expected El Nino and high indexation present upside risks. As a result, BanRep interest rate cuts should be cautious, in its view. On the fiscal front, the IMF notes the risks from planned increases in the deficit this year, adding that possible healthcare and pension reforms should comply with the fiscal framework.
  • Today, Q4 GDP data will be published at 1600GMT(1100ET), with analysts expecting the economy to have contracted by 0.5% q/q (vs. +0.2% prior). In annual terms, GDP growth is expected to have risen to +0.8% y/y, from -0.3%. December economic activity data will also be released, with growth expected to have moderated in the final month of the year.
    • 4Q GDP QoQ, est. -0.5%, prior 0.2%
    • 4Q GDP NSA YoY, est. 0.8%, prior -0.3%
    • Dec. Economic Activity NSA YoY, est. 0.8%, prior 2.3%
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