Free Trial
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
STIR
Implied ECB and BoE rate cuts were priced out Wednesday, with UK terminal rates sharply higher after today's CPI report.
- The September UK CPI report was not seen as game-changing (a beat on likely transitory factors), and pricing for the November MPC actually pulled back slightly on the day (1bp, currently implying 22% prob of a 25bp hike).
- But in a sell-off that kicked off in the afternoon session, terminal pricing picked up 4bp - now suggesting more than 18bp of hikes left in the cycle to Feb 2024. Rate cuts were priced out, with roughly 48bp in reductions seen in the year following the peak - 10bp less cuts than had been seen at Tuesday's close and vs 80bp as recently as late September.
- ECB hike pricing was little changed, though like the UK, implied rates suggested a pullback in cut expectations - by 3bp (from 60bp to 57bp) in 2024 after the peak in Dec 2024. There's still just 3bp of further hikes seen to the peak, with zero chance foreseen of a hike next week.
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
We are facing technical issues, please contact our team.
ok
Your request was sent sucessfully! Our team will contact you soon.
ok