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of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
STIR
BoE/ECB terminal rates fell sharply Tuesday after Dutch central bank president Knot dampened expectations for ECB hikes beyond next week's Governing Council meeting. While expectations for the upcoming respective meetings didn't change much, implied peak rates hit the lowest in just under a month.
- ECB terminal depo Rate pricing -3.9bp to 3.97% (47bp of further hikes left in the cycle to Dec 2023). While Knot's comments didn't really impact pricing for a 25bp hike next week (still 92+% priced), September meeting pricing pulled back 2.5bp, showing just over 38bp - just over an even chance of a hike vs a pause. Terminal pricing is now at the lowest since Jun 26 albeit it's remained over the 3.90% mark since Jun 15.
- BoE terminal Bank Rate pricing -9.6bp to 6.08% (108bp of further hikes left in the cycle to Mar 2024). Hike pricing fell sharply for a 2nd consecutive session to hit the lowest since Jun 21st, even as UK CPI data looms large first thing Wednesday morning. Implied odds for a 50bp hike in August inched a little lower (-1.5bp, to 42bp), though higher than session lows of 40bp which implied only 60/40 odds of a half-point raise vs 25bp.
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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