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Implied Rate Hike Pricing: One 25Bp and Done

STIR

Short end rates are gaining in the lead up to the FOMC policy announcement at the top of the hour, yield curves remain flatter with Bonds outperforming.

  • Fed funds implied hikes inching lower vs morning levels, but not enough to sway anticipation of a 25bp hike followed by a long pause from the Fed: Mar'23 currently at 20.3bp, May'23 cumulative 36.3bp to 4.943%, Jun'23 31.3bp to 4.893%. Fed Terminal climbs to 4.925% in May'23 vs. 4.960% this morning.
  • Implied rate cuts holding to longer dates with Dec'23 cumulative -22.5 at 4.355.
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