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- Volatility in the Polish bond market has been rising in the past two days ahead of July CPI preliminary print coming out tomorrow (July 30).
- Inflation is expected to accelerate to 4.7% YoY according to sell-side estimates, up from 4.4% the previous month.
- Even though three policymakers (out of eight) voted for a rate hike in June, the majority of the board is still in favor of keeping interest rates low in order to stimulate the economic recovery.
- Poland 10Y yield have been retracing higher in the past two days, breaking above its key resistance at 1.67%, which represents the 38.2% Fibo retracement of the 1.14% - 2% range and the high of the LT downward trending channel.
- Next resistance to watch on the topside stands at 1.73% (50DMA), followed by 1.79% (23.6% Fibo).