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Implied Volatility Has Been Compressing Ahead of August CPI

CZECHIA
  • Czech Prime Minister Andrej Babis vowed to defend the country's key car-making industry, saying he'll challenge a European Union proposal to abandon petrol and diesel cars by 2035 (BBG).
  • The Czech market has been quiet this week ahead of August CPI data on Friday (Sep 10); inflation is expected to accelerate to 3.6% according to sell-side estimates (from 3.4% in July).
  • Next CNB meeting is on September 30; the market is currently pricing in another 25bps hike (its third consecutive hike), which would bring the policy rate to 1%.
  • Last week, CNB Governor said in an interview that he 'cannot rule out' a bigger than 25bps hike in the coming meetings if the central bank's new inflation forecast indicates that such move is needed.
  • Czech 10Y yield ticked higher yesterday and is currently trading slightly above the 1.80% (after remaining flat at around 1.78% in recent weeks). Key resistance to watch on the topside stands at 2%. On the downside, first support stands at 1.74% (100DMA).
  • USDCZK ticks lower this morning after failing to break through its 200DMA at 21.51; next resistance to watch on the topside stands at 21.63 (50DMA). On the downside, first support to watch stands at 21.38 (100DMA).
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